How the model gets used, in practice.
Insights and deep-dives exploring the big questions in the business of club football, all run through the model.
Sustainability of EPL promotion spending.
All three clubs promoted to the Premier League spent big this summer on transfers — €170.7M net on average. The model prices the worst case of one season up and two seasons down, and finds operations near break-even, with compliance needing just €39.3M of player sales.
Headline investment, but attainable compliance — a reasonable risk for the upside.
Pricing the post-promotion gamble.
Sunderland and Paris FC both answered promotion by spending up. The model prices what that decision actually costs — the annual wage step, the impact if the drop comes anyway, and what a European season pays back.
The wage step, the drop and the upside — priced.
The top-half trap.
Top-half wages buy security from relegation — risk falls from over half to a fraction of that. The model prices what that safety costs: an operating loss in every one of the Big 5 leagues, carried every season without European football.
The risk, the logic, and the extent of the losses — in all five leagues.
Diligence on a Belgian Tier 2 club.
An investor bullish on Belgium wants the year-to-year reality of running a competitive Tier 2 club — before spending real money on diligence. Stadium size impact, promotion odds and three-year branches, priced.
Revenue more than doubles from 5,000 seats to 15,000, but expect losses.
Model your first scenario this week.
Run a full five-year simulation — P&L, compliance and outcome probabilities — before you commit a cent. No card, no sales call, just the model.