How the model gets used, in practice.
Insights and deep-dives exploring the big questions in the business of club football, all run through the model.
Pricing the post-promotion gamble.
Sunderland and Paris FC both answered promotion by spending up. The model prices what that decision actually costs — the annual wage step, the impact if the drop comes anyway, and what a European season pays back.
The wage step, the drop and the upside — priced.
The top-half trap.
Top-half wages buy security from relegation — risk falls from over half to a fraction of that. The model prices what that safety costs: an operating loss in every one of the Big 5 leagues, carried every season without European football.
The risk, the logic, and the extent of the losses — in all five leagues.
Diligence on a Belgian Tier 2 club.
An investor bullish on Belgium wants the year-to-year reality of running a competitive Tier 2 club — before spending real money on diligence. Stadium size impact, promotion odds and three-year branches, priced.
Revenue more than doubles from 5,000 seats to 15,000, but expect losses.
Model your first scenario this week.
Run a full five-year simulation — P&L, compliance and outcome probabilities — before you commit a cent. No card, no sales call, just the model.