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FOOTBALL FINANCIAL MODEL
Five-year football finance planner

Model your
journey
before it
plays out

Set the details for any type of club and get a full P&L, squad cost compliance, and the probability of every outcome — five years out.

12
Countries
30
League tiers
>80%
Statement coverage*
Country · Tier
England · Tier 1
Stadium
35,000 seats
Horizon
Yr0 → Yr5
Football revenue · Year 5
€182.0M▲ 6.4% vs Yr4
Cumulative operating net
€30.5M
five modeled seasons
Squad cost ratio
68%
Within limits
Expected value · Yr3
+€6.2M
probability-weighted
Football revenue trajectory
Yr1€141M
Yr2€152M
Yr3€160M
Yr4€171M
Yr5€182M
All figures shown are illustrative.
Grounded in real published club accounts
Trusted byFinance Depts.OwnersJournalistsAgents
Using the model

Easy steps from a blank scenario to a comprehensive plan.

Each step takes you one layer deeper into the model's core capabilities — turning a few simple inputs into live outputs and a comprehensive picture, all fully at your control.

Select your scenario-club's defining inputs.

Country, league tier, stadium, wage level and sporting ambition. Every choice recomputes the scenario the moment you set it.

Club finance · Inputs
CountryEngland
Stadium seats35,000
League tierTier 1League finish6
Wage levelTop-HalfEuropean CupNone
Scenario grid · Yr0 → Yr5
Line itemYr0Yr1Yr2Yr3Yr4Yr5
League tierT1T1T1T1T1T1
Wage levelTHTHTHTHTHTH
League finish 9th8th7th6th6th
Domestic cup R16R32QFQFR16
European Cup UCoLUEL
Revenue · €M 141152160171182

Chart a five-year course with every variable live.

Set finish, cup runs and wage trajectory year by year. Revenue, costs and compliance recompute across Yr1 → Yr5 as you go.

Explore how changes to inputs impact real financial results.

Nudge one lever — here, upgrading a European Cup — and read the before/after on revenue, wage bill, operating net and squad cost headroom.

What-if · Before / After
Changed inputEuropean Cup:  UCoL  →  UEL
Before
Revenue€171.0M
Wage bill€146.0M
Operating net€6.1M
Squad ratio68% / 70%
After
Revenue€182.0M+11.0
Wage bill€146.0M
Operating net€9.4M+3.3
Squad ratio66% / 70%−2
Profit & loss · by activity
Football Activities€17.6M
Youth/Academy(€11.6M)
Commercialization€6.0M
Squad Formation(€29.0M)
Profit/(Loss)(€17.0M)

Review full, validated, dynamic P&L statements.

Every scenario resolves to a complete statement by category — football activities, youth & academy, commercialization and squad formation — down to operating net.

Test your club's compliance with all cost regulations.

The squad cost ratio is checked live against the applicable ceilings. A single, unambiguous pass/fail — with the headroom shown — before you take the plan anywhere.

UEFA Squad Cost Rule · summary
Squad cost ratio
68%/ 70%
● Within limits
Cap 70%
0%2-point headroom100%
Who it's for

Built for people who work in numbers.

One model serves the needs of 4 key audiences. Whether you're inside a club, weighing an investment, reporting on the game, or negotiating a move — the same validated engine answers a different question.

Club Finance Departments
For teams that already model — and want a validated second opinion.

Extend existing scenarios.

Push your own five-year plan into paths you haven't modeled — a European run, a relegation, an aggressive wage year — without rebuilding the workbook.

SCENARIO BRANCHES
Base plan · internal€9.4M
+ Europa League run€12.1M
+ Title push€6.1M
− Relegation shock−€4.8M

Vet existing internal data.

Cross-check your assumptions against a model calibrated on published accounts. Where you diverge from comparable clubs, you'll see it — line by line.

ASSUMPTION CHECK
MatchdayIn range ✓
CommercialIn range ✓
BroadcastIn range ✓
Wage levels+8% high
Validation & compliance

Grounded figures. Regulations tested automatically.

A model is only as good as what anchors it. All revenue and cost lines are vetted against published accounts of comparable clubs — then tested against every regulation that applies to that country and tier.

Matchday & commercial revenues

Validated against the published statements of clubs of similar size, market and competition — not extrapolated from a single benchmark.

Wage levels

Drawn from published accounts and corroborated by credible reporting, these are the largest cost items and primary drivers of a club's fate.

Broadcast revenues

Modeled contract-by-contract — including parachute and solidarity payments — rather than as a flat league share.

Transfer activity

Estimated from three years of real activity among clubs of a similar profile, but by-club variation has the widest spread here of any line item in the P&L.

Comparable clubs, matched by revenue
Comparable clubs · Year 1
FulhamDomestic · ENG · Tier 1
SourceSeatsMatchday rev.Commercial rev.
Verified28,000€17,607,743€25,006,013
Crystal PalaceDomestic · ENG · Tier 1
SourceSeatsMatchday rev.Commercial rev.
Verified25,486€14,327,619€27,102,228
VillarrealForeign · ESP · Tier 1
SourceSeatsMatchday rev.Commercial rev.
Verified23,000€19,578,325€24,277,099
Squad cost limits — UEFA & domestic
Compliance · applied automatically

All Tier 1 clubs are tested against UEFA's rules; the applicable domestic regulation for the country and tier is layered on automatically.

UEFA Squad Cost RuleSquad cost ≤ 70% of relevant revenue
● Pass · 68%
Ratio 68%Ceiling 70% · 2-pt headroom
Domestic — England · Tier 1 (SCR)Squad cost ≤ 85% of relevant revenue
● Pass · 68%
Ratio 68%Ceiling 85% · 17-pt headroom
5-Year Probabilities

Not one forecast —the probability of every path.

The engine quantifies thousands of promotion, relegation and European paths across five seasons — each with its own probability and financial result — and resolves them into one probability-weighted outcome per year.

TODAYYEAR 1YEAR 2YEAR 3
8th2026/276.8%12.4%16.5%11.1%4.3%
Cups / PromotionMid-table · No-changeRelegation243 paths modeled

Most-likely outcomes

Year 3 · 2028/29
1
Y1Y2Y3
16.5%
+€4.8M
2
Y1Y2Y3
12.4%
+€6.9M
3
Y1Y2Y3
11.1%
+€2.6M
4
Y1Y2Y3
6.8%
+€9.2M
5
Y1Y2Y3
4.3%
−€5.6M
+€6.2M
Probability-weighted expected valueEvery path, weighted by its likelihood, resolved to one number.
Year 3
2028/29
Statements database

The foundation: thousands of published accounts.

Behind every simulation sits a structured library of real, published club financials — the reference set the model calibrates against, and a research tool in its own right.

12
Countries covered
30
League tiers
>80%
Statement coverage*
22/23–24/25
Seasons available

Thousands of published financial statements, blanketing the model's countries and tiers. Coverage is measured, not claimed — the grid shows exactly where it's complete and where it's still filling in.

Add-on only

The Statements Database adds the full archive to your model subscription — never sold as a standalone data feed.

€2,499/ year all-in
See pricing →
CoverageCountry × tier × season
FullHeavyLight
Each cell22/23 · 23/24 · 24/25
T1
T2
T3
T4
England
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Scotland

>80% of accounts covered across the top tiers, 22/23–24/25 — thousands of statements and counting.

Case studies

How the model gets used, in practice.

Insights and deep-dives exploring the big questions in the business of club football, all run through the model.

Pricing the post-promotion gamble.

Sunderland and Paris FC both answered promotion by spending up. The model prices what that decision actually costs — the annual wage step, the impact if the drop comes anyway, and what a European season pays back.

Result

The wage step, the drop and the upside — priced.

England & France · Tier 1Read study
Relegation odds · Year 1 by wage level5-Year Probabilities
Top-half5%
Bottom-half18%
Relegation-level60%
Probability of relegation in Year 1, by squad wage level.

The top-half trap.

The risk, the logic, and the extent of the losses — in all five leagues.

Big 5 leagues · Tier 1Read study

Diligence on a Belgian Tier 2 club.

Revenue more than doubles from 5,000 seats to 15,000, but expect losses.

Belgium · Tier 2Read study
Start free

Model your first scenario this week.

Run a full five-year simulation — P&L, compliance and outcome probabilities — before you commit a cent. No card, no sales call, just the model.

€999/ year
14 days free · no card
Full model, 2 countries during trial
P&L, compliance & probabilities
Statements Database available as add-on
Start free trial →